4 min read
    Chris Butler

    Here at One Model, we are the best in the world at orchestrating and driving insight from the dozens of internal systems that our customers use to manage their workforces. What our customers don't get from their internal workforce data, though, is the valuable context that external labor market can provide. Who are you competing with for talent and how much they are paying? What is the demand for specific roles in your location(s)? Who you are losing talent to and are they leaving for career advancement? There's a host of use cases for people analytics, but many more teams and functions have also been getting value from labor market data including recruiting, talent management, compensation planners, workforce planners, and corporate strategy. For all of these groups, the need includes both internal and external data, and, critically, they must be able to work together. Labor Market Intel was created to serve that need, delivering market supply and demand data in granular detail and with incredible flexibility! Since we are using our award-winning people analytics platform, we are able to provide external market data in curated standard content AND offer you and your team the ability to create your own custom storyboard content and strategic views. This is what One Model was built for. Labor Market Intel is being sold as a stand alone product and for One Model Enterprise customers this will offer an ability to integrate and link external market context to their internal data which we already manage. External data can then be incorporated into storyboards, metrics, and, crucially, into predictive analytics through our One AI automated machine learning engine. Through storyboards and predictive modeling that blend internal and external data, we think you can imagine the step-change impact. Check out the short video below: As mentioned in the video, our Labor Market Intel tool delivers a very granular view into supply and demand in a series of insight-driving storyboards to support varying use cases in People Analytics, Recruiting, Location Section, Corporate Strategy, and more. We go far beyond other products by offering the ability to create your own customized content to fit their needs, removing the need for all the copy-pasting into presentations and exporting to Excel. How LMI can drive immediate value for different teams: People Analytics - deliver insights on market dynamics that are impacting recruiting & retention and/or supporting workforce planning & strategy projects. Recruiters & Recruiting Agencies - develop recruiting strategies for specific roles, determining where the talent is located, what other companies are posting for similar roles, and which skills are emerging. For agencies, market insights can be used to create more successful bid proposals. Location selection - compare cities based on availability and cost of key roles, view which companies are active in the market, and how talent is moving between firms. Corporate Strategy - monitor the hiring of competitor firms to determine if they are expanding or contracting, and what skills, roles, and geographies they are focusing on. Let us share more with you? Attend the launch webinar - launch webinar click here A demonstration video is available on our LMI product page Fill out the form below and we will contact you with more details about our new Labor Market Intel product or our flagship People Analytics platform (or both!)

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    2 min read
    Nicholas Garbis

    On July 28, 2020, Nicholas Garbis of One Model and Cary Sparrow of Greenwich.HR delivered a press conference from the floor of the old Minneapolis Grain Exchange to discuss emerging trends in the US labor markets based on daily job posting data in the Covid Job Impacts website. Below is an excerpt of some of the main points, followed by a link to the video of the event. "Next Friday, August 7th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July jobs report. (Link to latest release here.) While there’s an ongoing debate regarding what will be in the July report, our recent analysis demonstrates that despite the dramatic increases in Covid-19 infections in many states over the month of July, the positive trends in the job market in many industries have continued through today. As a quick summary: The June jobs report was quite positive -- with a gain of 4.8 million jobs driven by big gains in Retail and Hospitality, the unemployment rate dropped 2.2% to 11.1%. Moving into July, the same two industries continued their upward trend -- and they were joined by others: Healthcare, Wholesale, and Construction. Our projection is that next week’s jobs report will be very strong -- much stronger than what you might expect given the gloom and doom in the news. Getting more specific, we project an increase in employment of about 6.0 million, which will drop the unemployment rate to around 9%, possibly below 9%. While we are optimistic for the July numbers, we are very cautious about what will happen in August. There is certainly continued momentum, but a change in state policies could easily reverse the gains." Cary and Nicholas proceeded to highlight various industries' results and then answer questions from the online audience. Be sure to sign up for our One Model blog and follow us on LinkedIn to learn about the next Labor Markets Press Conference!

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    10 min read
    Nicholas Garbis

    SUMMARY: June was great at 4.8 million new jobs. July will be over 6 million. The June 2020 employment report from the Bureau of Labor of Statistics showed an increase of 4.8 million jobs. It was welcomed as good news, but asterisks were quickly added based on the recently surging Covid infection numbers. July, it is feared, will shown softening in the market. Contrary to many, our data indicates that July jobs report will be better than June, likely exceeding 6 million new jobs. Our analysis is based on the positive signs we have been tracking in the Hospitality and Retail industries over the past several weeks through our Covid Job Impacts site, where we show new job postings on a daily basis by industry, state, and job family. Within the site’s commentary we have been commenting on the progress in these two industries specifically over the past several weeks. The BLS highlighted Hospitality and Retail in their June comments. These industries made up ~60% of the new jobs (2.8 million of the 4.8 million) while they make up ~20% of the total employment. Both were severely impacted in the early stages of the pandemic downturn and are now working their way back toward normal staffing activities. We see Hospitality and Retail combining to create over 4 million new jobs in July, as their job listing activity continues to surge. Most other industries are also showing increased hiring activity, so we estimate they will contribute another 2 million jobs. The August jobs numbers are a bit more difficult to estimate at this point. As states pause and reverse their opening plans, market uncertainties will drive job listings downward though to what extent and how quickly. At the early stages of the pandemic, companies’ reaction times were a bit slower. Perhaps now they have built up more rapid reflexes. Job Listings as a Leading Indicator A company’s decision to advertise a job opening is a clear indicator of their business outlook. If they were not confident at some level, they would delay or cancel the decision to hire. This is true for new, growth hiring as well as backfilling of current positions vacated by resignations or illness. The aggregate of these decisions to hire, as seen in the new job listings data on our Covid Job Impacts site, is therefore a clear and leading indicator for the economy overall. The site provides views of new job postings by industry, state, and job family, indexed to the job listing levels of March 1st, providing a high-resolution lens on the impacts of Covid-19 on the labor market and overall economy. Some views of the Covid Job Impacts site are below as reference: Fig. 1: Overall view of new job listings across all US industries. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) Fig. 2: Industry view of new job listings across all US industries. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) Trends in Hospitality and Retail industries New job listings in Hospitality hit a low in mid-April at around -80% verus March 1st , and have been on a steady path upward since. This is big progress, albeit far below pre-pandemic levels and still around -45% off versus March 1st. In Retail, the drop was also significant in March, regaining some ground in April and May, then demonstrating strength in June. It is the only industry that, even if for just a moment, has crossed into the positive terrain, exceeding the new job postings figures from March 1st on June 21. Fig. 3: Hospitality and Retail industry trends show continuing improvement. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) BLS summary of Hospitality and Retail in June In the June BLS report, Hospitality and Retail combined to create 2.84 million of the 4.8 million increase in employment. This is roughly 60% of the added jobs coming from two industry sectors that comprise about 20% of the workforce (roughly 10% each). From the June BLS report: Estimating the July Figures for Hospitality and Retail Emerging alongside this good news from BLS are escalating concerns regarding the employment impacts of states’ policy responses to recently increasing infection rates. These actions will certainly have a downward pressure on job creation across industries, Hospitality and Retail notwithstanding. However, the trend data for new job listings for Hospitality and Retail indicates that they will further increase employment in the month of July, at least during the period which will be covered in the next BLS report (which for a single week, generally the week including 12th day of the month). To demonstrate this, we are showing the Hospitality and Retail industry job listing trends along with timing windows to support our estimates for the July report. Fig. 4: View of Hospitality and Retail industries and June BLS reporting week. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) The very positive results from this particular week in June (Fig. 4) would not be from new job listings within that specific week, since job listings take some time to fill and for a new hire to begin working (and therefore be captured in the BLS data). While higher paying jobs can require a few months or more to fill, the jobs in Hospitality and Retail that were so significant in the June the report are relatively lower paying, so we would expect that they are requiring only a few weeks to fill. We have added a box to indicate the period of job listing activity that we assume to comprise most of the new jobs in the June report (Fig. 5, Box A). Fig. 5: Hospitality and Retail industries, with Box A indicating period aligned to June BLS data. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) Looking at a similar time window of job listing activity that will correspond to the employment levels on July 12th (Fig. 6, Box B) provides two key observations: the job listings that will be related to new jobs in that week have, for the most part, already been created, and many of them filled; and the volume of job listings in the time period that will be reflected in the July report are considerably higher than the levels that drove the very large job numbers in the June report. Fig. 6: Hospitality and Retail industries, with Box B indicating period aligned to July BLS data. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) Our estimate of 4 million jobs in Hospitality and Retail in the July BLS report is based on the analysis of the job listing volumes in these two industries, focusing on Box A (June report) versus Box B (July report). We can see far greater volumes in the later period. Where Hospitality gained 2.1 million new jobs in June based on the period in Box A, we estimate that the new figures will be around 3 million. Similarly, where Retail created 740,000 new jobs in June, the increased job listings figures in Box B versus Box A lead us to estimate that this industry will create over 1 million new jobs in the July report. Fig. 7: Hospitality and Retail industries, with average lines inserted in Boxes A and B. (Source: Covid Job Impacts site from Greenwich.hr/One Model, data through July 1, 2020) The next few weeks will be critical to watch As state policies regarding Covid-19 are adjusted over the next couple of weeks, we will be closely watching the changes in businesses’ hiring plans as seen through their job listing activities. A closer look at state-by-state results on the Covid Job Impacts site will provide a leading indicator and a way to gauge the August BLS report well before it arrives. About One Model, Inc. One Model delivers a comprehensive people analytics platform to business and HR leaders that integrates data from any HR technology solution with financial and operational data to deliver metrics, storyboard visuals, and advanced analytics through a proprietary AI and machine learning model builder. People data presents unique and complex challenges which the One Model platform simplifies to enable faster, better, evidence-based workforce decisions. Learn more at www.onemodel.co

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    5 min read
    Nicholas Garbis

    Two weeks ago, we released a new publicly available Covid Job Impact website to share daily data and insights on US job listings by industry, job family/role, and region/state. As we are looking at this data each day, we have watched some hopeful signs of recovery slipping away over the past week. This observation arrives on the same day that news reports are calling out reductions in the unemployment rate (see Forbes, "The Headlines are Dead Wrong - Unemployment Dropped 16% to 21M"). The total number of people on unemployment insurance has fallen from 24.9M to 21.1M in the past week according to the US Dept. of Labor reporting. A chart of this data is include in our site. So it's true, but it's in the rear view mirror and we want to look through the windshield. For quick reference, our site tracks US job listings with all figures being indexed to March 1st (ie, March 1 = 0%). Since job listings are decisions by businesses to hire, we believe this is reflective of their prospective outlook. And since job listings precede actual hiring by ~3 months, we see this data as a leading indicator of unemployment. Slipping Away? While we saw job listings up through mid-March, they quickly tumbled by ~50%, then proceed to bounce around a bit until they seemed to be holding steady in mid-May at around -27%. But over the past week (the last several dots) things have slipped down below -43% (see image). Together, Apart, and Together Again Another trend we spotted early on was that all industries fell together in mid-March, then began to diverge as different industries returned to hiring at different rates. While all industries were still down below March 1 levels, the range was wide, with some around -20% and others closer to -50%. In the most recent week, however, we see them all bending down together again. We think this is signaling a negative business outlook across multiple industries. (See image below with the periods marked out.) School's Out for Summer? In the midst of this, we can also see that the Hospitality industry, which fell fastest and stayed down the longest, has started to creep back up a bit. It appears that the Hospitality industry is expressing some confidence, perhaps betting that families will begin travelling now that stay-at-home orders are being lifted and the school year is wrapping up. The exception, viewable on the site, is the state of Nevada which continues to show Hospitality job listings down around -95% compared to March 1st. So, Will Unemployment Continue to Improve? As we see unemployment insurance claims dropping a bit, we believe a good portion is people returning to work from temporary unemployment (furloughs, temporary layoffs). These 'hires' will not require job listings. (Some of this was discussed with our guest, former Chief Economist of GE and Deutsche Bank, Marco Annunziata on our recent webinar.) We believe the reduction in job listings is indicative of a broad-based decrease in the business outlook and that unemployment may drop a bit more as temporary layoffs/furloughs end, but will remain stubbornly high for at least the next couple of months. If job postings begin to bend upward again toward -25%, there would be good reason to anticipate some material decreases in the unemployment numbers. One thing for certain: we will be watching this play out daily on the site. Keep an eye out for additional insights on the Covid Job Impacts site: https://covidjobimpacts.greenwich.hr -ng About One Model One Model delivers a comprehensive people analytics platform to business and HR leaders that integrates data from any HR technology solution with financial and operational data to deliver metrics, storyboard visuals, and advanced analytics through a proprietary AI and machine learning model builder. People data presents unique and complex challenges which the One Model platform simplifies to enable faster, better, evidence-based workforce decisions. Learn more at www.onemodel.co or email us at info@onemodel.co

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    4 min read
    Stacia Damron

    Today, One Model is thrilled to announce our new offering: One AI - Trailblazer. This new offering gives HR leaders access to the only openly configurable, HR-focused, automated machine learning engine in the world: One AI. Trailblazer is One Model's newest way of helping leaders incorporate workforce analytics and distill big data into every HR decision for recommendations that are smarter, faster, and more efficient. Predictive Analytics, Now “Our new offering uses One AI's industry knowledge to build machine learning pipelines engineered for your company. With a few minutes of work, One AI can deploy multiple models across your entire company,” said One Model data scientist, Taylor Clark. "Trailblazer is the quickest path to integrate reliable machine learning into an HR professional's workflow.” Taylor adds. “It brings cutting-edge automated machine learning to the HR world.” Forget Everything You Knew about HR Data Limitations This in itself is a huge step in the right direction for the HR community. In today’s world, access to the data is not enough to understand and interpret it in a strategic manner. HR leaders need the right tools to analyze, calculate, and draw insights from their people data. In fact - only a small percentage of companies feel confident regarding the state of their HR analytics capabilities. "The Trailblazer launch means that every people analytics team can add predictive analytics today, said Phil Schrader, One Model’s Product Evangelist. “Cost, technology, and specialized data skills are no longer barriers. Even security concerns around PII data can be resolved in the immediate term by anonymizing or hashing data points without affecting the performance of the predictive models.” Trailblazer’s quick-start program allows HR leaders to harness the power of One AI on a focused scale without implementing a full enterprise version of One Model to do so. One Model is thrilled to be able to add to our current list of offerings and share the capabilities of One AI to organizations that want to unlock predictive value but can't spare the resources or budget to build a comprehensive solution like One Model Enterprise. Are you ready to be a Trailblazer? One AI's Trailblazer quick-start program allows HR leaders to harness the power of One AI without implementing a full enterprise version of One Model. You could be on your way to equipping your team with predictive analytics and providing cutting edge insights to your stakeholders. The Trailblazer program even provides you with a One AI concierge to help you get rolling and understand your results. Want to learn more? About One AI - Trailblazer Trailblazer is One Model's newest way of helping leaders incorporate workforce analytics and distill big data into every HR decision for recommendations that are smarter, faster, and more efficient. The Trailblazer program does this by giving HR teams access to the only openly configurable, HR-focused, automated machine learning engine in the world: One AI. Introductory Offer: Try Trailblazer out for a month - $1,000 Visit onemodel.co/trailblazer-program to learn more. About One Model One Model provides a data management platform and comprehensive suite of people analytics directly from various HR technology platforms to measure all aspects of the employee lifecycle. Use our out-of-the-box integrations, metrics, analytics, and dashboards, or create your own as you need to. We provide a full platform for delivering more information, measurement, and accountability from your team.

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